Chuck Freedman

To support my prediction for Flash in 2009, I'd like to make the argument that while Flash Platform has become a proven Application platform, Flash Player is being used mostly for other purposes. I'd like to review my assumptions on Flash Player usage, and show why, along with the recent key improvements in Flash, next year is poised to be the year of Flash Advertising.

Current Use of Flash (based on what I think -- not actual stats that I haven't obtained):

60% as a Video Player (youtube, vimeo)
20% as an Ad vehicle (banners, point of sale, point of contact)
10% as a gaming engine (web and mobile)
5% as widgets (blog sidebar, myspace)
5% as an application engine (external and internal apps)

Key improvements over the past year and a half to Flash (Flash Player, CSx and Catalyst), in order of rank (again, not actual stats):

1. Video and audio enhancements
2. Animation (timeline) enhancements
3. 3D enhancements
4. Interface design
5. Compilation (packaging/deployment) size

I know Gumbo is introducing many 'code' improvements, but until that goes public, I'm focusing mostly on what was introduced to the Flash ecosystem most recently.

So, as you can see based on my assessment of Flash Player usage, the Flash coded swfs built as 'applications' probably make up the least use cases for Flash. The big push for RIA development is no match for the more mainstream use of Flash Player by the end user. Granted, while a video player swf still involves coding like an app, the player itself is not similar in functionality or complexity to something like a SlideRocket, Picnick or Photoshop Express. I think there is room for growth in all categories, but probably in parallel. As more people discover online video, that use of Flash Player will continue to grow and likely out-pace them all.

However, as holiday season shopping numbers indicate, despite a down economy, online sales figures continue to grow. With the shift of media consumption online versus the traditional media of TV/Radio/Newspaper, I'm thinking companies will look at Flash to compete more online. This means that more talented developers, designers and agencies will gravitate towards higher paying projects in this space.

The following advertising/marketing values are and will be leveraged more with Flash:

- Brand Recognition (viral communication of brand)
- Product awareness (viral spreading news of newly announced product)
- Point of Sale/Contact (customers actually purchase OR are put in touch directly with sales team)

What I like about this possibility is that it harnesses several disciplines of the Flash Platform community, ranging from design to development. I'm not just talking about a banner or 'small swf' form factor. Flash deployment in all sizes can accomplish successful advertising objectives. My hope is that this potential adoption places more value on extending Flash for communication as well as driving Flash Platform content producers to minimize the size of their swf and implement the most efficient (size and performance) methodologies possible.

The wildcard to this projection is potential and likely growth of the AIR (desktop) and mobile (possible iPhone) platforms. Here, Flash Platform use-cases like gaming and application development will surge.

While we wait for the Blu-ray release of Back to the Future, this announcement got me excited. It appears Universal will be releasing each movie individually in a feature-packed 2 disc set in February 2009.

Features include a few 'making of' documentaries plus the entire 'The Ride' movie.
Please post any comments with news about a Blu-ray announcement.

The new year hasn't even started and already there have been nearly a dozen Flash and Flex conferences announced. With the recent demise of the mega-conference, smaller, more focused events should be all the rage in 2009. As an evangelist in the Flash Platform space, I'm considering several options to travel and meet developers around the country, and around the world.

Two of the biggest Flash conferences are already in motion, both of which have slated me as a speaker!

This coming April, in Toronto, I will attend and present at my 3rd FITC Toronto event in 4 years. The event grew impressively between 2006 and 2008. It's well planned and draws the most creative audience of any conference I've been to. FITC owner Shawn Pucknell is very down to earth and the conference reflects it. I've seen Shawn at several other conferences this year and he is very involved with the community. FITC Tickets are on sale now and early bird pricing runs out Feb 1. I'll see you there.

Also in April, a fan/attendee favorite crosses the ocean for the first time. Flash on the Beach, perhaps the most acclaimed conference by its speakers will be in Miami. I've never been able to attend the conference in it's traditional environment of Brighton, UK. My colleagues that present there swear by it, and those that attend count the days (literally) until the next one. I met John Davey at MAX and after busting my balls a bit, came off as someone completely focused on putting on the very best event possible. Tickets for Flash on the Beach are on sale and this show DOES sell out, so if you plan to go, sign up now.

There are some very cool conferences announced and I will cover those in future posts. Over Thanksgiving break, I launched a little project site called eventslate.com, which lists all RIA shows. Check it out and feel free to add your event if I didn't post it yet.

You know, I don't remember how old I was when I first went to Dairy Queen. And I don't remember what day it was when I had my first Blizzard. But I do remember the taste... oh that sweet taste... of the very first Pecan Cluster Blizzard I had. The problem is, kids today are being deprived of such a flavor. In fact, I bet most of you have never experienced the sheer bliss that I know of as the Pecan Cluster. There's a good reason you probably don't it. It's simple. THE PECAN CLUSTER IS NOT ON THE MENU.

Now, there aren't many things I know of in this world to ask for that aren't on the menu. I'd love to be one of those old folks that's been going to their local diner for 30 years... and even though such and such a dish isn't there, they know they can ask for it... and sure enough, Jimmy in the back knows how to cook it up for them.

Ordering something that isn't on the menu, especially from such a widespread, multi-national chain like Dairy Queen, makes me feel pretty privileged. It's as if I have a secret handshake with each and every one of them. So the next time you go to Dairy Queen (or DQ as the kids call it), be sure and ask for a Pecan Cluster Blizzard. Know that it won't be on the menu, but they'll make it for you. And if you look close enough, you'll see the little DQ maker smile to themselves, knowing you've been a customer of theirs long enough to be able to order something special. As they serve it to you, watch them flip it upside down -- and then, enjoy it as you go to town.

[DQ, you are free to use that last line as a slogan... but be warned, it could also be confused as explicit rap lyrics.]

Ted has announced the initial videos of sessions from MAX North America are starting to be posted. This is exciting. Having videos from 360Flex San Jose has been excellent. Since I was working the Ribbit booth during the conference, I missed out on a lot of sessions I wanted to see. I've asked Ted if there will be a publish schedule for the session videos, and I'll post an update when he responds to my comment.

The videos will be featured on the Adobe TV MAX channel.

UPDATE: Ted says that there will be no schedule and that we should want to watch every video anyway. 290 hours is a ton of content to produce.

If you're in the Seattle area, come to the Seattle Flex User Group tonight. I'll be going over the latest Ribbit release including how to code new features like SMS into your Flex app. I'll also have an overstuffed bag of goodies to give away (including those very cool Moleskine notebooks from MAX). I'll also go over details on Ribbit's Killer App Challenge, which awards it's first prize in just 4 weeks!

I have not presented at a user group since earlier this year, and I love doing it. So I'm looking forward to tonight.

Here's the location. See you in a few hours.

Ribbit has filled a treasure chest full of $100,000 to reward the winners and participants of it's Killer App Challenge. The contest is mostly tailored towards the Flash Platform community and we expect to see many quality entries building Ribbit into Flash, Flex and AIR apps.

The details are simple. You've got 5 categories and an amazing chance to win up to $33,000 in cash. The Ribbit Killer App challenge launched at MAX 2008. I'm part of an incredible judging panel which includes Lee Brimelow, Matt Chotin and Daniel Dura. At the very least, any Flash/Flex developer has a chance to get their work in front of and likely blogged about by some very cool and notable folks. I'm sincerely grateful to have such honorable guys from Adobe participate and reward the community this way with us. We'll likely be adding some additional judges to make this event even greater.

The contest is very simple, easy to enter and even easier to participate in. We're going to have 3 checkpoints, the first in early January. There will be a winner at each checkpoint, and the same app can keep winning. Then, on March 12, all apps are to be submitted, and a winner will be chosen from each category and earn $15K. The best app overall will earn and additional $15K. It's quite an amazing pot. Developers will remain owners of their work and be encouraged to launch on the Ribbit platform to generate even more revenue.

Three of the categories are focused on building the best Ribbit application in Flash, Flex or AIR:

Best Ribbit Entertainment/Media/Advertising App - add Ribbit to a highly interactive application that engages users.
Best Ribbit Social Networking/Communications App - build a Facebook/MySpace widget that will improve communications for millions of users.
Best Ribbit Business/Productivity App - add Ribbit to an app that makes users more productive with voice, messaging and communications.

To get started, visit the contest page at http://killerappchallenge.ribbit.com! What are you waiting for! Here's your chance to breakthrough in the most exciting way possible!

Personally, I am thrilled that Ribbit is enabling us to reward the community in such a huge way. This is the ultimate excuse to play and code a bit with Ribbit. Take the API for a spin and see what you can do. I can't wait to see the entries we get and I hope the immense cash prize only adds to the potential and opportunity we have created for every developer to succeed coding on the Ribbit Platform!

Sign up for the contest now! http://killerappchallenge.ribbit.com

[re-posting due to blog issues]

I was on, live at 3:00 PM PST with Sarah Austin from pop17 (http://www.mogulus.com/pop17) talking about Ribbit, Flash and Flex.

I join the broadcast about 18:00 into it. It was lots of fun, and she was super nice to talk with on camera.

[re-posting due to blog issues]

I love it when Techcrunch delves into our little world and writes about things Flash-related. On the eve of Adobe MAX 2008, they have broken a story which is pretty interesting (and not in any way surprising). Adobe is no longer going to use the name "Flex" and now all things Flash-related will be referred to as the "Flash Platform".

Ever since Flex 1.x was replaced with Flex 2.0, I've been saying the 'framework' deserves a new name. The product we knew as FlexBuilder has really just been a much more code-friendly way to build apps for Flash. This name-changing effort will clear up a lot of confusion, especially to those new to Flash that didn't quite understand how/why to differently named products ended up producing the same thing -- a SWF.

While the name change is very logical from a product stand point, I have to wonder if some company using Flex already (say Ford) may have had a hand in this. Anyway, it's a good move all around, and I hope it helps unify what is a very divided Flash Platform community.

Reporting live from MAX 2008...

In honor of Election Day, here are my top 5 favorite movie presidential portrayals:

	1.The American President I love Michael Douglas' turn as President Andrew Shepherd. A very like-able leader forced into a character debate over his relationship with a lobbyist. The movie marks a reunion of Douglas with Martin Sheen, who would become a president of his own in The West Wing. It also features Michael J. Fox in a very cool role prior to Spin City.
	2.Dave Kevin Kline is very believable as a presidential look-alike who stands in for office and does a better job running the country than the actual president. He's got great chemistry with first lady Sigourney Weaver and walks away from the role in the end, only to run for city council. Features Sir Ben Kingsley as VP and Laura Linney as 'special' assistant to the president.
	3.The Rock/Armageddon Stanley Anderson, in a reoccurring role of Michael Bay films, plays a great president. Three words: "Air strike approved!"
	4. Independence Day Forgive me for this one, but Bill Pullman rocks as president. He's young. He can motivate an air field full of pilot citizens. And in the end, he grabs a helmet and leads a squadron against the giant alien spaceships. It sucks that his wife dies in the process, but adds to resolve to why he risks it all to fight for the country. Quite a speech when he proclaims, "We will not go down into the night".
	5.The Contender Jeff Bridges, as President Jackson Evans, plays a kick ass president who picks a woman (Joan Allen) to be his VP (what a novel idea). Gary Oldman really steals this movie as the 'evil' congressman trying to bring down the VP selection. The scene between Bridges and Christian Slater in the White House is worth watching.

Did I miss your favorite movie president?

* Images from imdb.com. Movie plots proudly recalled from my own memory.