2009 Flash prediction, the year of Flash Advertising
To support my prediction for Flash in 2009, I’d like to make the argument that while Flash Platform has become a proven Application platform, Flash Player is being used mostly for other purposes. I’d like to review my assumptions on Flash Player usage, and show why, along with the recent key improvements in Flash, next year is poised to be the year of Flash Advertising.
Current Use of Flash (based on what I think — not actual stats that I haven’t obtained):
60% as a Video Player (youtube, vimeo)
20% as an Ad vehicle (banners, point of sale, point of contact)
10% as a gaming engine (web and mobile)
5% as widgets (blog sidebar, myspace)
5% as an application engine (external and internal apps)
Key improvements over the past year and a half to Flash (Flash Player, CSx and Catalyst), in order of rank (again, not actual stats):
1. Video and audio enhancements
2. Animation (timeline) enhancements
3. 3D enhancements
4. Interface design
5. Compilation (packaging/deployment) size
I know Gumbo is introducing many ‘code’ improvements, but until that goes public, I’m focusing mostly on what was introduced to the Flash ecosystem most recently.
So, as you can see based on my assessment of Flash Player usage, the Flash coded swfs built as ‘applications’ probably make up the least use cases for Flash. The big push for RIA development is no match for the more mainstream use of Flash Player by the end user. Granted, while a video player swf still involves coding like an app, the player itself is not similar in functionality or complexity to something like a SlideRocket, Picnick or Photoshop Express. I think there is room for growth in all categories, but probably in parallel. As more people discover online video, that use of Flash Player will continue to grow and likely out-pace them all.
However, as holiday season shopping numbers indicate, despite a down economy, online sales figures continue to grow. With the shift of media consumption online versus the traditional media of TV/Radio/Newspaper, I’m thinking companies will look at Flash to compete more online. This means that more talented developers, designers and agencies will gravitate towards higher paying projects in this space.
The following advertising/marketing values are and will be leveraged more with Flash:
- Brand Recognition (viral communication of brand)
- Product awareness (viral spreading news of newly announced product)
- Point of Sale/Contact (customers actually purchase OR are put in touch directly with sales team)
What I like about this possibility is that it harnesses several disciplines of the Flash Platform community, ranging from design to development. I’m not just talking about a banner or ’small swf’ form factor. Flash deployment in all sizes can accomplish successful advertising objectives. My hope is that this potential adoption places more value on extending Flash for communication as well as driving Flash Platform content producers to minimize the size of their swf and implement the most efficient (size and performance) methodologies possible.
The wildcard to this projection is potential and likely growth of the AIR (desktop) and mobile (possible iPhone) platforms. Here, Flash Platform use-cases like gaming and application development will surge.
New Back to the Future DVD Release
While we wait for the Blu-ray release of Back to the Future, this announcement got me excited. It appears Universal will be releasing each movie individually in a feature-packed 2 disc set in February 2009.
Features include a few ‘making of’ documentaries plus the entire ‘The Ride’ movie.
Please post any comments with news about a Blu-ray announcement.
Flash conference fun shaping up for 2009
The new year hasn’t even started and already there have been nearly a dozen Flash and Flex conferences announced. With the recent demise of the mega-conference, smaller, more focused events should be all the rage in 2009. As an evangelist in the Flash Platform space, I’m considering several options to travel and meet developers around the country, and around the world.
Two of the biggest Flash conferences are already in motion, both of which have slated me as a speaker!
This coming April, in Toronto, I will attend and present at my 3rd FITC Toronto event in 4 years. The event grew impressively between 2006 and 2008. It’s well planned and draws the most creative audience of any conference I’ve been to. FITC owner Shawn Pucknell is very down to earth and the conference reflects it. I’ve seen Shawn at several other conferences this year and he is very involved with the community. FITC Tickets are on sale now and early bird pricing runs out Feb 1. I’ll see you there.
Also in April, a fan/attendee favorite crosses the ocean for the first time. Flash on the Beach, perhaps the most acclaimed conference by its speakers will be in Miami. I’ve never been able to attend the conference in it’s traditional environment of Brighton, UK. My colleagues that present there swear by it, and those that attend count the days (literally) until the next one. I met John Davey at MAX and after busting my balls a bit, came off as someone completely focused on putting on the very best event possible. Tickets for Flash on the Beach are on sale and this show DOES sell out, so if you plan to go, sign up now.
There are some very cool conferences announced and I will cover those in future posts. Over Thanksgiving break, I launched a little project site called eventslate.com, which lists all RIA shows. Check it out and feel free to add your event if I didn’t post it yet.
My secret handshake with Dairy Queen
You know, I don’t remember how old I was when I first went to Dairy Queen. And I don’t remember what day it was when I had my first Blizzard. But I do remember the taste… oh that sweet taste… of the very first Pecan Cluster Blizzard I had. The problem is, kids today are being deprived of such a flavor. In fact, I bet most of you have never experienced the sheer bliss that I know of as the Pecan Cluster. There’s a good reason you probably don’t it. It’s simple. THE PECAN CLUSTER IS NOT ON THE MENU.
Now, there aren’t many things I know of in this world to ask for that aren’t on the menu. I’d love to be one of those old folks that’s been going to their local diner for 30 years… and even though such and such a dish isn’t there, they know they can ask for it… and sure enough, Jimmy in the back knows how to cook it up for them.
Ordering something that isn’t on the menu, especially from such a widespread, multi-national chain like Dairy Queen, makes me feel pretty privileged. It’s as if I have a secret handshake with each and every one of them. So the next time you go to Dairy Queen (or DQ as the kids call it), be sure and ask for a Pecan Cluster Blizzard. Know that it won’t be on the menu, but they’ll make it for you. And if you look close enough, you’ll see the little DQ maker smile to themselves, knowing you’ve been a customer of theirs long enough to be able to order something special. As they serve it to you, watch them flip it upside down — and then, enjoy it as you go to town.
[DQ, you are free to use that last line as a slogan... but be warned, it could also be confused as explicit rap lyrics.]
MAX 2008 session videos are being posted
Ted has announced the initial videos of sessions from MAX North America are starting to be posted. This is exciting. Having videos from 360Flex San Jose has been excellent. Since I was working the Ribbit booth during the conference, I missed out on a lot of sessions I wanted to see. I’ve asked Ted if there will be a publish schedule for the session videos, and I’ll post an update when he responds to my comment.
The videos will be featured on the Adobe TV MAX channel.
UPDATE: Ted says that there will be no schedule and that we should want to watch every video anyway. 290 hours is a ton of content to produce.
Speaking at Seattle Flex user group tonight
If you’re in the Seattle area, come to the Seattle Flex User Group tonight. I’ll be going over the latest Ribbit release including how to code new features like SMS into your Flex app. I’ll also have an overstuffed bag of goodies to give away (including those very cool Moleskine notebooks from MAX). I’ll also go over details on Ribbit’s Killer App Challenge, which awards it’s first prize in just 4 weeks!
I have not presented at a user group since earlier this year, and I love doing it. So I’m looking forward to tonight.
Here’s the location. See you in a few hours.
Follow Me
Follow Me
Upcoming Engagements
-
